(This essay was first published as a tweet thread)
In 2019, Elon Musk dismissed hydrogen as “the dumbest thing," yet some believe we are at a pivotal point for a "hydrogen economy," paralleling the status of lithium batteries in 2015.
Many didn’t know hydrogen had its moments in the early 2000s. Significant investments & prototypes were made in Japan, South Korea, etc. In fact, Canada’s Ballard Power Systems, the world's largest hydrogen fuel cell company, was founded in 1979 initially to focus on lithium battery R&D. It eventually morphed into a hydrogen fuel cell powerhouse.
That time Tesla had not yet introduced the Roadster, its first electric car that eventually brought about the lithium battery revolution. Similarly, it took the Prius a decade to make the world’s first hybrid car a household name.
Is the hydrogen car at a pivotal moment on its own S-curve?
Australian billionaire and coal mining tycoon Andrew Forrest certainly believes so. Forrest called Musk a 'muppet' for not believing in fuel cells and has declared himself 'all-in' on a hydrogen economy.
Here are other signals suggesting we might be at the dawn of a hydrogen economy.
The President of Toyota, the 'lone wolf' in hydrogen car making (more on that later), has expressed that he belongs to the industry's “silent majority,” who question electric vehicles as a single option but remain silent due to it being a mainstream trend
South Korea is close to establishing 300 hydrogen stations nationwide, with a price of approximately $7/kg.
In China, rumors suggest that most, if not all, heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers (bus and tram makers) now own a hydrogen production plant.
In Taiwan, the National Development Council (NDC) has reportedly committed to hydrogen development as part of its 2050 zero-emission plan. The focus is particularly on green hydrogen obtained through the electrolysis of water, which TSMC has reportedly been experimenting with.
So, what advantages do hydrogen fuel cells have over EV's lithium-ion batteries? (Surprise, safety is one of them!)
Cheaper. The rare earth elements needed for lithium batteries are becoming increasingly expensive (some minerals have reported 500%+ price surges in recent years), while costs for green hydrogen are dropping, especially as solar panels have become 94% cheaper since 1989.
Cleaner. Hydrogen fuel cells mainly use H2O, the most abundant element in the universe and a highly energy-dense fuel. Plus, it's easier to achieve carbon-neutral when burned.
Longer Driving Range. Hydrogen fuel cells offer quicker refueling times (3-5 minutes for passenger cars) and a longer driving range (over 400 miles vs. EV's 300 miles).
Greener Recycling.The sustainability of EV battery recycling is still debated, but hydrogen cars only emit water, eliminating such concerns.
Safer (debatab-ly). Hydrogen is the lightest element; in the event of a collision, if leaked, it quickly evaporates and rises into the air. In contrast, a fire involving an EV's lithium-ion battery can be deadly.
So what stops hydrogen from going mainstream?
In 2014, when Toyota released the first hydrogen passenger car, Mirai, under $60k, it was deemed a watershed moment for hydrogen cars, but challenges remain.
First, the storage size. Hydrogen's low energy density makes storage challenging, and current fuel cells are bulky for passenger cars. Infrastructure: Investment is needed for hydrogen refueling stations, which are sparse compared to gas stations.
Secondly, the production barrier. Green hydrogen (from alternative energy) production is difficult and unsteady; currently most is derived from coal (grey hydrogen), oil (gold hydrogen) or carbon capture (blue hydrogen), all emitting carbon.
Thirdly, under-performance in the cold weather. Fuel cells can under perform in coldness.
Fourthly, costly catalyst. Expensive metals such as platinum and iridium required during production can add up quickly.
Lastly, market monopoly by Toyota. Toyota's extensive patents might influence prices and market direction.
Are breakthroughs in sight and where might be the hydrogen unicorns?
However, just as any innovation that remained dormant for decades, only the believers never stopped innovating. Some noteworthy breakthroughs, including infrastructures, have reportedly been made.
Something about Hydrogen fueling stations, which can operate analogously to conventional gasoline stations. The same pipelines used for obtaining hydrogen can be leveraged, which makes building out hydrogen station infrastructure more budget-permissible.
Also, first hydrogen stations been deployed mainly for commercial usages, such as airport shuttles in California, which require more fixed routes vs more distributed gas stations for passenger cars.
Meantime, many breakthroughs in hydrogen tech have been made in reducing the cost of production and the carbon footprint.
So now, the primary challenge that remains is hydrogen fuel cell storage, which is considered the fiercest battleground. It is also where we can expect the most exciting startups to emerge, bringing fuel cells into the mainstream as competitors to EV's lithium-ion technology.
Noteworthy breakthroughs in hydrogen tech
We are witnessing the following breakthroughs in hydrogen technology.
Costs lowering in hydrogen procurement.
Platinum and iridium, some of the most expensive rare earth minerals, are required as catalysts or electrolyzers for hydrogen production. Now the industry has seen a ten-fold reduction in the consumption of such minerals.
Plus, some of the minerals can be 100% recycled, compared to the environmental concerns around recycling lithium-ion batteries.
Coldness resistance
Japan’s Kawasaki, another front-line player in the hydrogen industry, has reported breakthroughs in overcoming the cold temperature limitations on hydrogen fuel cell usage.
The “Color Revolution” in hydrogen production
The industry uses a color-coded system to classify methods of hydrogen production, including the following.
Grey Hydrogen
Derived from gas or coal, it results in CO2 emissions. Gold Hydrogen: Produced during oil refining.
Blue Hydrogen
Similar to grey hydrogen, produced from natural gas or coal but with carbon capture and storage, making it less carbon-intensive.
Green Hydrogen
Generated using renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and water, primarily through electrolysis. Each category has experienced significant innovations, positioning them at the forefront of hydrogen technology advancements.
Gold Hydrogen
Countries rich in oil reserves, such as Australia, Canada, and the USA, are seeing potential in gold hydrogen. The existing infrastructure and well-serviced locations enhance this potential, especially for gas transportation.
Companies like Gold Hydrogen Ltd (ASX:GHY) in Australia estimate reserves of up to 1.3 billion kilograms of hydrogen in regions like the Ramsay Peninsula and Kangaroo Island, heralding a “new gold rush for Australia.”
In the USA, especially Texas, companies like Cemvita Factory believe over 1,000 depleted oil wells are suitable for microbial treatment to produce gold hydrogen.
Calgary-based Proton Technology is gaining traction with its gold hydrogen technique, having clinched several licensing deals.
Grey Hydrogen & Blue Hydrogen
Grey hydrogen is particularly popular in Australia . However, with grey hydrogen's primary concern is CO2 emission during production, Blue hydrogen often seen as a transitional solution, blue hydrogen provides the advantages of hydrogen without the high CO2 footprint of grey hydrogen.
Industrialists like Andrew Forrest have made immense promises in turning coal mining green and the key is blue hydrogen.
Green Hydrogen
This is where some of the most significant breakthroughs are occurring.
The US Defense Department-backed Professor James Tour touts an invention to have produced green hydrogen from plastic waste and uses the resulting graphene to offset carbon emissions.
TSMC, the world’s most important chip maker, is pioneering a state-of-the-art low-carbon hydrogen facility in Tainan, Taiwan, propelling green semiconductor production to new heights.
In China, Chinese researchers, as reported by Nature, have devised an impressive technique to split seawater into oxygen and hydrogen, eliminating the need for desalination.
The last mile: are fuel cells ripe to take off?
With ongoing breakthroughs in hydrogen production( and cost reduction), it becomes clear that the final step to a mature hydrogen economy is the storage, particularly fuel cells, for both commercial and passenger vehicles. This sector awaits its own Elon Musk. Stay tuned.